Big Movers In February 2023
Catalent (CTLT): The contract manufacturer of pharmaceuticals may be acquired by Danaher, according to a report by Bloomberg News.
Match (MTCH): The online-dating stock missed estimates for earnings and revenue as usage slowed.
Tesla (TSLA): The electric-vehicle maker kept advancing amid reports of market-share gains and sold-out queues for new Model Ys.
Moderna (MRNA): The biotechnology company missed profit forecasts as demand weakens for its coronavirus vaccines.
Nvidia (NVDA): The semiconductor company’s earnings, revenue and guidance surprised to the upside. The gaming market improved and management forecast strong demand as artificial intelligence (AI) spreads.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN): The junk-rated telecom issued weak guidance, its second straight drop following quarterly results.
Key Economic Events Last Month
Fed Slows Rate Hikes, Mentions ‘Disinflation’
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the smallest increase since March 2022. Chairman Jerome Powell also said that “disinflation” had begun. (1/2)
Housing at a crossroads?
The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, almost triple the forecast amount. Unemployment fell more than expected to the lowest level since 1969. (3/2)
Old Inflation Data Revised Higher
The government revised the consumer price index (CPI) higher for November and December. The news erased a welcome decline in prices and contributed to fears of higher interest rates. (10/2)
Strong Retail Sales Drive Rate Hike Fears
Retail sales increased by 3% in January, well ahead of estimates. While the news suggested a recession isn’t likely, it increased worries about the Fed hiking interest rates. (15/2)
Key Futures Contracts
| Product Name | Current Month | Expiration | Next Month | 1-Mon% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 E-Mini (@ES) | ESH23(March) | 17 Mar 2023 | ESM23(June) | -3% |
| S&P 500 E-Mini Micro (@MES) | MESH23 (March) | 17 Mar 2023 | MEMH23 (June) | -3% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-Mini (@NQ) | NQH23 (March) | 17 Mar 2023 | NQM23 (June) | -0.9% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-Mini Micro (@MNQ) | MNQH23 (March) | 17 Mar 2023 | MNQM23 (June) | -0.9% |
| Dow Jones E-Mini (@YM) | YMH23 (March) | 17 Mar 2023 | YMM23 (June) | -4.4% |
| Dow Jones E-Mini (@MYM) | MYMH23 (March) | 17 Mar 2023 | MYMM23 (June) | -4.4% |
* Micro contracts are one-tenth the size of standard e-minis.
Events to Watch This Month
| Date | Event | WhattoWatch |
|---|---|---|
| Tues, 7-March | Jerome Powell Testimony in Congress | Guidance on monetary policy. Will he hint at 50 basis points later this month? |
| Fri, 10-Mar | Non-farm payrolls | Wages & unemployment. Will January’s large payroll gain be revised lower? |
| Thu, 14-Mar | Inflation report | The consumer price index one hour before U.S. markets open could shape rate expectations. |
| Fri, 17-Mar | Quadruple witching | Trading volumes are typically heavy as futures and options contracts expire. |
| Wed, 22-Mar | Interest rate decision | The Fed will announce interest rate changes and issue a new quarterly “dot plot” with projections of future policy. |
Sector Watch
Technology rose 0.4%. It was the only sector to climb as large growth stocks like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia advanced.
Industrial stocks held their ground as the strong economy lifted manufacturers, engineering firms and transports.
Noteworthy Calls & Predictions
Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin predicted the S&P 500 will end the year little changed around 4,000. He cited high valuations, weak earnings and potential risk associated with the federal debt ceiling.
StocksDeutsche Bank said major short covering from last year’s bear market is mostly finished. The report said $300 billion in downside positioning is gone, potentially removing an upside catalyst for the S&P 500.
StocksBank of America reported accelerating consumer activity in January. Credit and debit card spending rose 5.1% from a year ago, more than twice the growth rate in December. The bank partially attributed the growth to higher minimum wages and Social Security payments.
ConsumerJPMorgan Chase strategist Mislav Matejka warned the stock market may have already reached its peak for the year. He cited higher interest rates and ongoing recession risks.
StocksMorgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could drop to 3,000 in the first half of the year because of poor earnings and rising interest rates. He called the risk-reward “very poor,” adding that the risk premium for stocks has entered a “death zone.”
StocksDisclosure
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