Market Insights October 2022

MARKET INSIGHTS

Monthly Market Roundup | U.S. Equities

Big Movers In October 2022

halliburton-september2022

Halliburton (HAL): The oil-field servicing company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue as energy production increased.

generac-september2022

Generac (GNRC): The maker of power supplies warned that revenue would miss targets as demand for generators softened.

dexcom-september2022

DexCom (DXCM): The diabetes company’s quarterly results beat consensus estimates. The government also widened its potential market for glucose monitoring.,

meta-september2022

Meta Platforms (META): The parent of Facebook missed profit forecasts and issued weak guidance as rising costs erode profit margins.

noewegian cruise - september2022

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Bookings improved for the cruise-ship operator as travel demand rebounds following the coronavirus pandemic.

tesla-september2022

Tesla (TSLA): The electric-vehicle maker reported lower-than-expected quarterly deliveries and revenue. Supply-chain issues and currencies also squeezed its results.

Key Economic Events Last Month

TSG - Green icon

Job growth, unemployment beat estimates

Non-farm payrolls increased by 263,000 in September, slightly beating forecasts. Unemployment also fell more than expected as leisure and hospitality hiring continued. (7/10)

TSG - Red icon

Housing at a crossroads?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% between August and September, twice the anticipated rate. Food, shelter and medical care drove the increase, even as energy costs eased. (13/10)

TSG - Red icon

Homebuilder sentiment cut in half

NAHB’s index of homebuilder sentiment plunged to 38 in October, less than half its reading earlier in the year. Buyer traffic and sales outlooks have slowed sharply as mortgage rates increase. (18/10)

TSG - Red icon

Inflation Hits Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence dropped more than expected as Americans worried about inflation before the holidays. There was also a sense of job availability diminishing. (25/10)

Key Futures Contracts

Product Name Current Month Expiration Next Month 1-Mon%
S&P 500 E-Mini (@ES) ESZ22(Dec) 16 Dec 2022 ESH23(Jan) +11%
S&P 500 E-Mini Micro (@MES) MESZ22 (Dec) 16 Dec 2022 MESH23 (Jan) +11%
Nasdaq-100 E-Mini (@NQ) NQZ22 (Dec) 16 Dec 2022 NQH23 (Jan) +3.9%
Nasdaq-100 E-Mini Micro (@MNQ) MNQZ22 (Dec) 16 Dec 2022 MNQH23 (Jan) +3.9%
Dow Jones E-Mini (@YM) YMZ22 (Dec) 16 Dec 2022 YMH23 (Jan) +14%
Dow Jones E-Mini (@MYM) MYMZ22 (Dec) 16 Dec 2022 MYMH23 (Jan) +14%

Events to Watch This Month

Date Event WhattoWatch
Wed, 2-Nov Federal Reserve meeting and press conference Will the strong labor market cool, potentially giving the Fed reason to slow rate hikes?Will Jerome Powell hint at slower interest-rate hikes at the 14-Dec meeting?
Fri, 4-Nov Non-farm payrolls Will the jobs market weaken, potentially giving the Fed a reason to ease monetary policy?
Tue, 8-Nov U.S. midterm elections Will Republicans gain seats in Congress and state governments against incumbent Democrats?
Thu, 10-Nov Inflation report October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due one hour before U.S. markets open.
Week of 14-Nov Last big week of earnings Walmart (WMT), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Home Depot (HD) report in the last big week of earnings season.

Sector Watch

energy-october2022
industrials-october2022
financials-october2022
healhcare-october2022
consumerstaples-october2022
materials-october2022
sp500 - october2022
technology -october2022
realestate - october2022
utilities - october2022
consumerdiscxretionay-october2022
communications - october2022

Health Care stocks fell the least as investors favored their safe-haven status. Biotechs were strong.

Real estate stocks fell the most as higher interest rates reduced the appeal of income investments.

Technology stocks fell again as economic concerns hurt semiconductors and higher interest rates weighed on software makers.

Communications stocks fell amid selling in telecom and media companies.

Noteworthy Calls & Predictions

6-October:

Citi predicts global equities will gain 18% through the end of 2023 because investors are likely to see bargains after multiples contracted this year.

Stocks
10-October:

Famed investor Paul Tudor Jones said short-term Treasury yields could give clues on the stock market’s direction. He added that signs of a recession could lower borrowing costs, potentially anticipating easier monetary policy by the Fed.

Stocks
19-October:

Deutsche Bank sees “very bearish positioning” in the semiconductor industry. The bank cited weaker demand from PC makers and data centers. It expects softness in the group until macroeconomic conditions improve.

Semiconductors
24-October:

CNBC reported that inflation worries have dominated quarterly reports this earnings season. Companies including PepsiCo (PEP) and Citi (C) noted cost pressures impacting results. The report cited an analysis by FactSet.

Earning
26-October:

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson said the bear market could end next year. Wilson, prominent for anticipating 2022’s decline, noted the S&P 500’s ability to hold its low from June.

Stocks

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