Big Movers In March 2022
Nielsen (NLSN): The media-analytics company jumped on reports of advanced talks with buyout firms including Elliott Management. NLSN held out for a sweeter offer, ultimately winning a 60% premium.
Synchrony Financial (SYF): The consumer lender continued a slide that began in October as loan delinquencies grew.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): The oil driller promised to return more capital to shareholders. Famed value investor Warren Buffett also disclosed and added to a $5 billion stake.
Penn National Gaming (PENN): The gambling and sports-betting stock continues to struggle after losing more than half its value in the last year. Investors are reassessing the prospects of its business as competition increases.
Tesla (TSLA): The electric-car giant announced plans for its second stock split in fewer than two years. It also raised prices to offset higher costs.
Etsy (ETSY): The e-commerce firm continues a slide that began last year when investors unloaded high-multiple growth stocks. The move, prompted by higher interest rates and post-pandemic profit-taking, came despite strong quarterly results in late February.
Key Economic Events Last Month
Fed Hikes Rates Growth
Federal Reserve officials were busy tightening monetary policy in March. The central bank raised interest rates for the first time since December 2018 and doubled its number of planned hikes (16/3). Chairman Jerome Powell later opened the door to 50-basis point moves (21/3).
Housing starts jump to 15-year high
Housing starts accelerated to an annualized pace of 1.769 million in February, the highest reading since June 2006. Building permits are also near long-term highs as demand for homes outstrip supply. (17/3)
Jobless claims hit 52-year low
Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, the lowest level since 1969. That suggests the labor market remains strong following the pandemic (24/3). A separate report showed job openings outnumbering unemployed workers by about 5 million. (29/3)
Consumers shrug off soaring prices
Consumer confidence fell less than forecast from February. Higher fuel prices and interest rates have slowed some purchases, as expected. Those negatives were offset by perceptions of a strong economy and “plentiful” jobs. (29/3)
Key Futures Contracts
| Product Name | Current Month | Expiration | Next Month | 1-Mon% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 E-Mini (@ES) | ESM22(June) | 17 Jun 2022 | ESU22(Sep) | +4% |
| S&P 500 E-Mini Micro (@MES) | MESM22 (June) | 17 Jun 2022 | MESU22 (Sep) | +4% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-Mini (@NQ) | NQM22 (June) | 17 Jun 2022 | NQU22 (Sep) | +4.8% |
| Nasdaq-100 E-Mini Micro (@MNQ) | MNQM22 (June) | 17 Jun 2022 | MNQU22 (Sep) | +4.8% |
| Dow Jones E-Mini (@YM) | YMM22 (June) | 17 Jun 2022 | YMU22 (Sep) | +2.8% |
| Dow Jones E-Mini (@MYM) | MYMM22 (June) | 17 Jun 2022 | MYMU22 (Sep) | +2.8% |
Events to Watch This Month
| Date | Event | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Tues 12-April, Wed, 13-April |
Consumer price index (CPI), Producer price index (PPI) |
Do inflation pressures ease for consumers and wholesalers? |
| Thu, 14-April | Retail sales | Will shoppers continue to spend despite higher fuel prices? |
| Week of 18-April | Earnings season begins | Results from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C) |
| Week of 25-April | Big Nasdaq earnings | Results from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta (FB) |
| Thu, 28-Apr | Gross Domestic Product (Initial Estimate for Q1) | Does inventory investment remain strong as businesses rebuild stockpiles depleted during the pandemic? |
Sector Watch
Utilities broke out to new highs as investors rotated to non-cyclical stocks with less economic risk.
Energy stocks rallied on continued geopolitical risks and supply constraints after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Technology stocks lagged the market as interest rates rose and supply-chain worries squeezed semiconductors.
Real Estate stocks tumbled as interest rates increased.
Financials struggled as the yield curve flattened, which can reduce lending margins.
Noteworthy Calls & Predictions
FactSet: FactSet: A survey of analyst estimates show that earnings are expected to grow just 4.8% in the first quarter, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2020. FactSet also noted that twice as many companies have issued negative guidance than positive.
S&P 500Strategists lowered their year-end targets for the S&P 500. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs went from 4,900 to 4,700 (11/3). JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic went from 5,050 to 4,900 (21/3). Barclays went from 4,800 to 4,500 (24/3).
S&P 500Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics: The U.S. housing market is beginning a “substantial downshift” because of higher interest rates. He predicted prices and rents will decline as early as the spring homebuying season.
HousingCanaccord Genuity strategy Tony Dwyer: Recession risks from yield curve are overstated. He also expects the Federal Reserve will turn more dovish if the economy slows later in the year.
S&P 500Bank of America: The S&P 500’s late-March bounce is a bear-market rally amid weakening fundamentals. The analysts expect higher interest rates and a difficult macro backdrop will limit upside and prevent sustained appreciation.
S&P 500Disclosure
Monthly Market Roundup brings you ideas about potential trading opportunities, key economic events and education that is designed to help you become a better self-directed investor. No offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives or futures products of any kind, or any type of trading or investment advice, recommendation, or strategy, is made, given or in any manner endorsed by any TradeStation affiliate. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. Investments and trading involve risks, including possible loss of principal. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for your financial condition.
The material is provided by TradeStation International Ltd, authorized and regulated by the FCA (554431) in the UK and acting as an introducing broker to affiliated and non-affiliated brokers such as TradeStation Securities, Inc., and Interactive Brokers (U.K.) Ltd. The firm does not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.